Business Cycle Developments, Financial Fragility, Housing and Commodity Prices
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EURO AREA BUSINESS CYCLE NETWORK (EABCN)21 - 23 November 2008
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CREI (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona
Room 23.S05 Wellington Building |
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Programme |
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Friday 21 November |
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| 12:30 - 13:30 | Registration and Lunch |
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Session I - The Great Moderation |
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| 13:30 - 15:00 | Explaining the Great Moderation: It's not the Shocks!
Domenico Giannone (European Central Bank and CEPR) Discussant: Vasco Carvalho (CREI and UPF) |
| Oil and the Great Moderation
*Anton Nakov (Banco de España) Discussant: Marc Gronwald (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
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| 15:00 - 15:30 | Break |
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Session II - Commodities and Financial Institutions |
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| 15:30 - 17:00 | Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
*Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan and CEPR) Discussant: Martino Pelli (DEEP-HEC Université de Lausanne) |
| Real Time' Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity?
Lucia Alessi (European Central Bank) Discussant: Benoît Mojon (Banque de France) |
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| 17:00 - 17:30 | Break |
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Session III - Housing and Business Cycle Fluctuations I |
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| 17:30 - 19:00 | House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy
*Marek Jarocinski (European Central Bank) Discussant: Rochelle Edge (Federal Reserve Board) |
| House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience
John Duca (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) Discussant: Pierre Siklos (Freie Universitat Berlin and Wilfrid Laurier University) |
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Saturday 22 November |
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Session IV - Business Cycles and Financial Institutions I |
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| 9:30 - 11:00 | Financial (In)stability, Supervision and Liquidity Injections: a Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach
Gregory de Walque (National Bank of Belgium) Discussant: Sumru G. Altug (Koç University and CEPR) |
| Systemic Risk-Taking: Accelerator Effects, Externalities, and Regulatory Responses
*Anton Korinek (University of Maryland) Discussant: John Driffill (Birkbeck College and CEPR) |
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| 11:00 - 11:30 | Break |
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Session V - Housing and Business Cycle Fluctuations |
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| 11:30 - 13:00 | Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model
*Matteo Iacoviello (Boston College) Discussant: Thijs van Rens (CREI, UPF and CEPR) |
| Housing Finance, Housing Shocks, and the Business Cycle: Evidence from OECD Countries.
Roberto Cardarelli (International Monetary Fund) Discussant: Robert Kollmann (ECARES and CEPR) |
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| 13:00 - 15:00 | Lunch |
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Session VI - "News" and the Business Cycle |
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| 15:00 - 16:30 | What's "News" in Business Cycles
*Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe (Columbia University and CEPR) Martín Uribe (Columbia University) Discussant: Chryssi Giannitsarou (University of Cambridge and CEPR) |
| Changes in Growth Potential and Endogenous Technology Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations
*Diego Comin (Harvard Business School) Discussant: Jordi Galí (CREI, UPF and CEPR) |
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| 16:30 - 17:00 | Break |
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Session VII - Session VII - Business Cycles, Financial Institutions and Credit |
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| 17:00 - 19:00 | Systemic Risk-Taking and the US Financial Crisis
*Romain Rancière (International Monetary Fund and CEPR) Discussant: Victoria Saporta (Bank of England) |
| Banking Competition, Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Stability
*Javier Andrés (Universidad de Valencia) Discussant: Martin Ellison (University of Oxford and CEPR) |
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Sunday 23 November |
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Session VIII - Business Cycles and Financial Institutions III |
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| 09:30 - 11:00 | The (Lack of a) Role for Financial Innovation in Explaining Changes in Business Cycle Properties
*Wouter Den Haan (University of Amsterdam and CEPR) Discussant: Paolo Surico (Bank of England) |
| Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?
Alessandro Calza (European Central Bank) Discussant: John Muellbauer (University of Oxford and CEPR) |
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| 11:00 - 11:30 | Break |
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Session IX - Credit and the Business Cycle - A US Perspective |
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| 11:30 - 12:15 | Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages
Tamim Bayoumi (International Monetary Fund and CEPR) Discussant: Kristoffer Nimark (CREI and UPF) |
| Organizers: | Fabio Canova (ICREA, AMeN and CEPR) Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR) |
