Organised by the Scientific Committee of the EABCN Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Université
Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Carlo Favero
(IGIER, Università Bocconi and CEPR), Gabriel
Perez-Quiros (Banco de España) and Jérôme
Henry (ECB)
Friday 5 December
Session
1: Structural Models, Evaluation and Forecasting
10.00 – 10.30
*denotes speaker
Resuscitating the Real Business
Cycle Hypothesis: A VAR Analysis with DSGE Priors on Impulse
Responses (for paper, click download)
*Luca Dedola (Banca d’Italia)
*Stefano Neri (Banca d’Italia)
10.30 – 11.00
The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwarz
Hypothesis
*Lawrence Christiano (Northwestern University)
Roberto Motto (European Central Bank)
Massimo Rostagno (European Central Bank)
11.00 – 11.15
Coffee
11.15 – 11.45
Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARs.
An application to the Euro Area
*Marco del Negro (Federal Reseve Bank of Atlanta)
Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
Frank Smets (European Central Bank)
*Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium)
11.45 – 12.30
Discussion
Discussants:
Andreas Fischer (Swiss National Bank and Gerzensee Study
Center)
Christopher Otrok (Virginia University) (click
for details)
Christopher Sims (Princeton University)
12.30 – 14.00
Lunch
Session 2: Econometrics
(Evaluation and Forecasting)
14.00 – 14.30
Small Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate
Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons (for paper, click
download)
*Elena Pesavento (Emory University)
*Barbara Rossi (Duke University)
14.30 – 15.00
Using Turning Point Information to Study Economic
Dynamics (for paper, click download)
Don Harding (University of Melbourne)
15.00 – 15.30
Forecasting Inflation: an Art as well as a Science
(for paper, click download)
Ard Den Reijer (De Nederlandsche Bank)
*P.J.G. Vlaar (De Nederlandsche Bank)
15.30 – 16.30
Discussion
Discussants:
Filippo Altissimo (European Central Bank)
Denise Osborn (University of Manchester) (click
for details)
Adrian Pagan (Australian National University) (click for
discussion details on Rossi
or Vlaar)
Saturday 6 December
Session 3: Shocks
09.30 – 10.00
Inflation Scares, and Forecast-Based Monetary
Policy (for paper, click download)
*Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System)
John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
10.00 – 10.30
Shocks and Propagation in the Post-war G7
(for paper, click download)
Vincent Labhard (Bank of England)
10.30 – 11.00
The International Business Cycle in a Changing
World: Volatility and Propagation of Shocks (for paper, click
download)
Micheal Artis (European University Institute)
*Denise Osborn (University of Manchester)
*Pedro Perez-Vasquez (Universidad de Valencia)
11.00 – 11.15
Coffee
11.15 – 11.45
What Moves Real GDP? (for paper, click download)
Harald Uhlig (Humboldt University Berlin)
11.45 – 13.00
Discussion
Discussants:
Luca Dedola (Banca d’Italia)
Martin Ellison (University of Warwick) (click
for details)
Luca Sala (Universita Bocconi) (click
for details)
