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8TH WORKSHOP EURO AREA BUSINESS CYCLE NETWORK (EABCN) |
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6-7 September 2007, Paris Hosted by the Banque de France |
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Organizers:
Carlo Favero (Bocconi University), Kirstin Hubrich (European Central Bank) and Jean-Pierre Villetelle (Banque de France) |
Thursday 6 September | |
Session 1: Changes in inflation dynamics and monetary regime | |
09.00 - 10.00 | Inflation Gap Persistence in the U.S. Timothy Cogley *(UC Davis) Thomas Sargent (New York University) Discussants: |
10.00 - 11.00 |
Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes Discussants: |
11.00 - 11.30 | Coffee |
Session 2: Inflation expectations and financial market | |
11.30 - 12.30 | The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation Andrew Ang* (Columbia Business School) Geert Bekaert (Columbia Business School) Min Wei (Federal Reserve Board) Discussants: Refet Gurkaynak (Bilkent University), |
12.30 - 14:00 | Lunch |
Session 3: International transmission of shocks and inflation | |
14:00 - 15:00 | Structural Breaks and Causality in International Transmission of Price Shocks Erdenebat Bataa (University of Manchester) Denise R. Osborn*(University of Manchester), Marianne Sensier (University of Manchester) Dick van Dijk (Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam) Discussants: |
15:00 - 16:00 |
Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World and Country Specific Factors Discussants: |
16.00 - 16.15 | Coffee |
Session 4.1: Forecasting changing inflation | |
16:15 - 17:15 |
Inflation Forecasting and Time-Varying Factor Models Discussants: |
20.00 | Dinner |
Friday 7 September | |
Session 4.2 Inflation forecasting under structural changes and in real time | |
09.00 - 09.50 |
Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Discussants: |
09:50 - 10.40 | Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policy Marlene Amstad (Swiss National Bank) Simon Potter* (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Discussants: |
10.40 - 11.00 | Coffee Break |
Session 4.3: Forecasting inflation with disaggregate information | |
11.00 - 11.50 |
Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate Discussants: |
11:50 – 12.40 |
Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom? Discussants: |
Panel: Issues on inflation forecasting in central banks |
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12.40 - 13.10 | Jim Stock (Harvard University) and Lucrezia Reichlin (ECB) |
13.10 - 13.30 |
General Discussion |
13.30 - 15:00 | Lunch |
*denotes speaker |