5TH WORKSHOP EURO AREA BUSINESS CYCLE NETWORK (EABCN)
Needed: A Real Time Database for the Euro-Area
Brussels, 13-14 June 2005, hosted by the National Bank of Belgium
Organizers:
Domenico Giannone (ECARES-ULB), Jerome Henry (European Central Bank) and Rafael Wouters (NBB)
Monday 13 June
10.00-11.00 Welcome Coffee
Session 1: Review of the Literature
11.00-11.20 The Research Frontier
Dean Croushore (University of Richmond) (see presentation)
Session 2: News
11.20-11.40 Where are we now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro-Economy
Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University) (see presentation)
11.40-12.00 News
Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)
Dave Small (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
12.00-12.15 Discussant
Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR) (see discussion notes)
12.15-12.30 Discussant
Nigel Pain (OECD) (see presentation)
12.30-12.45 General Discussion
12.45-14.00 Lunch
Session 3: Available Real-Time Databases and Applications
14.00-14.15 Revisions of Quarterly National Accounts and Real-Time Assessment of GDP
Daniel Grenouilleau (European Commission) (see presentation)
14.15-14.30 An Example of a Real-Time Database for the Euro Area
Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank)
Magdalena Lalik (European Central Bank)
14.30-14.45 Building a Real-Time Database for GDP(E)
Colin Ellis (Bank of England) (see presentation)
14.45-15.00 Building a Real-Time Database for Germany
Thomas Knetsch (Deutsche Bundesbank) (see presentation)
15.00-15.15 Revisions to Quarterly GDP Estimates: A View from the OECD Database
Tommaso Di Fonzo (OECD and Università degli Studi di Padova)
Richard McKenzie (OECD) (see presentation)
15.15-15.30 On the Predictability of GDP Data Revisions in the Netherlands
Ard Den Reijer (De Nederlandsche Bank) (see presentation)
15.30-15.45 Analyzing the Quality of Selected Finnish Macro Series
Samu Kurri (Bank of Finland) (see presentation)
15.45-16.15 General Discussion
16.00-16.15 Coffee
Session 4: RTDB EABCN Project
16.15-16.30 Survey and General Results
Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank)
16.30-17.30 Roundtable on Data Availability and Data Collection
17.30-18.15 General discussion on the next steps
Tuesday 14 June
Session 1: Forecast and Real-Time Information 1
09.30-09.50 Quality of OECD and IMF Forecasts: Some Implications for Decision-Making
Heinz Glück (Öesterreichische Nationalbank) (see presentation)
Stefan Schleicher (University of Graz)
09.50-10.05 Discussant
Antoni Espasa (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) (see presentation)
10.05-10.25 Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth: An Assessment of Real-Time Performance based on Vintage Data
Marie Diron (European Central Bank) (see presentation)
10.25-10.40 Discussant
Saverio Simonelli (Università di Napoli) (see discussion notes)
10.40-10.55 General Discussion
Session 2: Forecast and Real-Time Information II
11.10-11.30 Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed from 1996 to 2003
Robert J. Tetlow (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) (see presentation)
11.30-11.45 Discussant
Robert Kollman (University of Paris XII and CEPR)
11.45-12.05 The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR)
Simon van Norden (Ecoles des HEC) (see presentation)
12.05-12.20 Discussant
Vincent Labhard (Bank of England) (see discussion notes)
12.20-12.35 General Discussion
Session 3: Properties of Data Revisions
14.00-14.20 Typical Procedures of Real-Time Short-Run Analyses and their Statistical Foundations: Are the Practitioners right?
Roberto Golinelli (Università di Bologna)
Giuseppe Parigi (Banca d'Italia) (see presentation)
14.20-14.45 Data Revisions are not Well-Behaved
Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland) (see presentation)
14.45-15.00 Discussant 1
Sumru Altug (Koç University and CEPR)
15.00-15.15 Discussant 2
Gonzalo Camba-Mendez (European Central Bank) (see discussion notes)
15.15-15.30 General Discussion
16.30-18.00 Joint BNB Seminar
Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR)
John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) on Learning and Policy (see presentation)
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