| Thursday 6 September |
| Session 1: Changes in inflation
dynamics and monetary regime |
| 09.00 - 10.00 |
Inflation Gap Persistence in the U.S.
Timothy Cogley *(UC Davis)
Thomas Sargent (New York University)
Discussants:
Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern University),
H. Le Bihan (Banque de France) |
| 10.00 - 11.00 |
Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when
Monetary Policy Switches Regimes
Roger Farmer* (UCLA),
Tao Zha (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Daniel Waggoner (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Discussants:
Julien
Matheron (Banque de France)
Gianni Amisano (ECB) |
| 11.00 - 11.30 |
Coffee |
| Session 2: Inflation expectations
and financial market |
| 11.30 - 12.30 |
The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected
Inflation
Andrew Ang* (Columbia Business School)
Geert Bekaert (Columbia Business School)
Min Wei (Federal Reserve Board)
Discussants: Refet
Gurkaynak (Bilkent University),
Mikhail Chernov (London Business School) |
| 12.30 - 14:00 |
Lunch |
| Session 3: International transmission
of shocks and inflation |
| 14:00 - 15:00 |
Structural Breaks and Causality in International
Transmission of Price Shocks
Erdenebat
Bataa (University of Manchester)
Denise
R. Osborn*(University of Manchester),
Marianne
Sensier (University of Manchester)
Dick
van Dijk (Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam)
Discussants:
Fabrice
Collard (GREMAQ-Université de Toulouse),
Tony
Yates (Bank of England) |
| 15:00 - 16:00 |
Evolving International Inflation Dynamics:
World and Country Specific Factors
Haroon
Mumtaz (Birkbeck College, London)
Paolo
Surico* (Bank of England)
Discussants:
Vanessa
Smith (Cambridge University),
Benoit
Mojon (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| 16.00 - 16.15 |
Coffee |
| Session 4.1: Forecasting changing
inflation |
| 16:15 - 17:15 |
Inflation Forecasting and Time-Varying Factor
Models
Mark Watson (Princeton University)
Jim Stock* (Harvard
University)
Discussants:
Raffaella
Giacomini (University College London),
Jan
Groen (Bank of England) |
| 20.00 |
Dinner |
| Friday 7 September |
| Session 4.2 Inflation forecasting
under structural changes and in real time |
| 09.00 - 09.50 |
Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion
Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change
Anindya Banerjee (EUI)
Massimiliano
Marcellino* (IEP-Bocconi University,
IGIER)
Igor Masten (University of Ljubljana)
Discussants:
Domenico
Giannone (ECB) |
| 09:50 - 10.40 |
Real time underlying inflation gauges for
monetary policy
Marlene Amstad (Swiss National Bank)
Simon Potter* (Federal
Reserve Bank of New York) Discussants:
Martin
Ellison (University of Warwick) |
| 10.40 - 11.00 |
Coffee Break |
| Session 4.3: Forecasting
inflation with disaggregate information |
| 11.00 - 11.50 |
Combining
Disaggregate Forecasts or Disaggregate Information
to Forecast an Aggregate
Kirstin
Hubrich* (ECB)
David
Hendry (Oxford University)
Discussants:
O.
de Bandt (Banque de France) |
| 11:50 – 12.40 |
Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up
approach: How bottom is bottom?
António
Rua* (Banco de Portugal)
Cláudia
Duarte (Banco de Portugal)
Discussants:
Christian
Schumacher (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
Panel: Issues
on inflation forecasting in central banks
|
| 12.40 - 13.10 |
Jim Stock (Harvard University) and Lucrezia Reichlin
(ECB) |
| 13.10 - 13.30 |
General Discussion |
| 13.30 - 15:00 |
Lunch |
| *denotes speaker |
