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The Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) aims to bring together researchers from Central Banks and other policy institutions with those in academia to help shape the European business cycle agenda.


NEWS:

We would like to congratulate Massimiliano Marcellino who is the new EABCN Scientific Committee Chair and to welcome Klaus Adam who is our new EABCN Scientific Committee Vice-Chair . We would like to thank Albert Marcet for his work and help as Chair of the last three years.



Upcoming conferences 

'Macroeconomic Stabilization and Economic Recovery after the Financial Crisis' Cambridge (UK), 9-10 May 2014

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis a number of policy issues have been brought to the centre stage of both policy debates and academic research. This conference aims to bring together some of the recent papers on economics recovery following boom-burst episodes, debt consolidation and sustainability and crisis, fiscal and monetary policy in a liquidity trap, the effects of newly designed policy institutions and institutional reform in the European Union. For more details see the call available below.

Partecipation has been confirmed by: Mark Aguiar (Princeton U.), Emmanuel Farhi (Harvard U. and CEPR), Ricardo Reis (Columbia U. and CEPR) and Jaume Ventura (CREI and CEPR).

  • Click here for the call for papers
  • Deadline: passed 

'Nonlinearities in Macroeconomics and Finance in Light of Crisis' Frankfurt, 15-16 December 2014 

The importance and usefulness of nonlinear models has been emphasised by recent turbulent times. These models are crucial in fields of research and research-based policy advice regarding the nexus between financial instabilities and the macroeconomy, the housing market, the effects of standard and non-standard monetary policies, the effects of fiscal policies and the role of financial variables as providers of information regarding agents' attitude with respect to risk and stress conditions in financial markets. The conference will cover a broad range of themes in macroeconomics and finance with nonlinearities are relevant.

Chris Sims (Princeton University) will be the keynote speaker. Monika Piazzesi, Frank Schorfheide, Martin Schneider and Philippe bacchetta have agreed to participate.

  • Click here for the call for papers.
  • Deadline 30 August 2014

Upcoming training schools

'Financial Econometrics, Macroeconometrics, and Predictive Modelling' Florence, 12-14 May 2014

The 21st EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'Financial Econometrics, Macroeconometrics and Predictive Modelling' taught by professor  Francis Diebold (University of Pennsylvania). The course will focus on recent developments in measurement, modelling and forecasting in macroeconomic contexts, financial economic contexts and the interface. The training school will take place at the European University Institute, Florence, from the 12th to the 14th May 2014.
  • Click here for the invitation
  • Deadline: passed

 'International Dimension of Optimal Monetary Policy', Cambridge (UK), 3-5 July 2014

The 20th EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'International Dimension of Optimal Monetary Policy' taught by professor Giancarlo Corsetti (University of Cambridge and CEPR). The course will focus on:
  • trade-offs between internal and external objectives reconsidered. Open-economy Phillips Curve, loss function and targeting rules. Monetary versus macro-prudential policies;
  • Open issues in the design of DSGE models for policy design and assessment:
    • Local currency price stability of imports;
    • Competitiveness;
    • Stabilization under fixed exchange rates: pitfalls in the so-called Walters' critique. Are multipliers larger under fixed exchange rate regime?
    • The trasmission of sovereign risk. 
  • Click here for the invitation.
  • Deadline: 18 April

'Finance and the Macroeconomy', Florence, 15-17 September 2014 

The 22st EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'Finance and the Macroeconomy' taught by professor Simon Gilchrist (Boston University), The course will cover both the theoretical and empirical issues related to finance and the macroeconomy through the lenses of financial accelerator type models. The training school will take place at the European University Institute, Florence, from the 15th to the 17th of September 2014.

Details to come



Past events 

'Judgement and Combination in Forecasting and Policy Models', London, 20-21 March 2014

Judgement and expert knowledge is widely thought to be important in the successful practice of forecasting. For policymakers, forecasts also embody judgements about the state of the economy, the transmission of shocks and optimal policy responses which necessitate the use of structural models. DSGE models estimated by Bayesian methods have become popular, partly because the models have become popular, partly because the models have well defined structural interpretations and because the Bayesian framework allows judgements about model properties to be embodied in priors. There is, however, uncertainty about both model parameters and the correct model. 
This conference aims to bring together policymakers and academics interested in these issues.
  • Click here for the program and papers.

'Inflation Developments after the Great Recession', Eltville (Frankfurt), 6-7 December 2013

Inflation is at the moment under control in most of the developed world, in some areas there are deflation risks and in others active policies are in place to exit from deflation. However, rising fiscal deficits and public debt and unconventional monetary policy may have inflationary effects in the medium run, though the transmission mechanisms are still unclear and the uncertain enviroment makes it difficult to project future effects and developments in inflation expectations. This conference will focus on empirical and theoretical contributions providing an assessment of various issues related to inflation developments, offering new perspectives on structural analysis, forecasting and economic policy design and assessment. 

  • Click here for the program and papers

 'Volatility: Measurement, Modelling and Forecasting', Florence 13-15 November 2013

The 19th EABCN training school will be three days course on 'Volatility: Measurement, Modelling and Forecasting' taught by Professor Torben G. Andersen (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern). The training school will take place at the European University Institute, Florence, from the 13th to the 15th of November 2013.

  • Click here for the details


Discussion Forum: "Fiscal Fragmentation in the Euro Area: Sources, Implications and Policy Responses", Frankfurt, 23 September 2013

This EABCN Discussion Forum has considered a range of issues related to the state of current financial fragmentation in the Euro area. This has included the spillovers from financial fragmentation to good market fragmentation, the consequences of financial fragmentation for the resolution of the crisis and the rebalancing of the Euro area economy, the short run policy actions taken in response to financial fragmentation, as well as the longer-term institutional reforms such as banking union that need to be undertaken in order to avoid fragmentation in the future.
 
Guest Speakers included:
Click here for more information.

First joint EABCN and MNB training school: 'Markov Switching VARs and DSGEs', Budapest 22-26 July 2013

There first EABCN and MNB training school was a five days course on 'Markov Switching VARs and DSGEs' taught by Tao Zha (Federal Reserve of Atlanta). The training school took place at the Conference Center of the Magyar Nemzti Bank, Budapest from the 22nd to the 26th of July 2013.

Click here for the details.


18th Training School: 'The Search-Theoretic Approach to Liquidity', Lisbon 13-15 May 2013

The 18th EABCN training school was a three days course on 'The Search-Theoretic Approach to Liquidity' taught by Professor Ricardo Lagos (New York University). The training school took place at Banco de Portugal, Lisbon, from the 13th to the 15th of May 2013.

Click here for the details.


 Conference: 'Global Spillovers and Economic Cycles', Paris, 30-31 May 2013

In an increasingly integrated global economy, assessing the propagation of shocks is becoming of major interest to the international economic cycles analysis. This conference focussed on empirical and theoretical contributions providing an assessment of various spillover effects at a global level and new prospectives on structural analysis, forecasting and economic policy design and assessment. 

Click here for the details.


 

Albert Marcet is interviewed on Vox

Albert Marcet explains why the predictions of potential Spanish sovereign default are misguided. He discusses debt and financial coordination in the eurozone and comments on his new role as scientific chair of the EABCN.

Click here to listen to the interview.


Andrew Scott interviews two leading economists: Tom Sargent and Jordi Gali

Click here to listen to the inteviews and to download the transcripts.


Real Time Data Base:  now publicly available on ECB SDW

We are happy to announce that now the database, available on this website since October 2005, is now publicly downloadable from the ECB Statistical Warehouse (SDW).

A detailed description of the database is contained in the CEPR/EABCN Working Paper "An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area" by Domenico Giannone, Jerome Henry, Magdalena Lalik and Michele Modugno. 

For more details click here.