The Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) aims to bring together researchers from Central Banks and other policy institutions with those in academia to help shape the European business cycle agenda.


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Upcoming conferences 

'Persistent Output Gaps: Causes and Policy Remedies', Cambridge (UK) 3-4 September 2015

In many European economies, the recovery following the financial crisis has proven either sluggish or non-existent. Many countries suffer from persistently high level of unemployment, coupled with sluggish credit dynamics and stretched fiscal budgets. These outcomes put pressure on policymakers to step up the growth potential of their economies, so as to absorb the slack in labour markets and to stabilize debt dynamics.

The conference seeks to bring together academics entertaining different views about the likely sources and remedies to the European situation.

Gauti Eggertsson (Brown University), Bob Hall (Stanford University) and Alp Simpsek (MIT) have confirmed their participation.

  • Click here for the call for papers
  • Deadline: 15 May 2015  

'Econometric Methods for Business Cycle Analysis, Forecasting and Policy Simulations', Oslo 11-12 June, 2015

The recent turbulent times have revived the interest in business cycle analysis, forecasting and methods to assess the effects of economic policies. This, in turn, has generated the development of refined or totally new econometric methods, in particular based on Bayesian techniques. The conference will cover a broad range of econometric themes with emphasis on methodological, theoretical and empirical aspects and their relevance for economic policy making.

Fabio Canova (EUI), Herman van Dijk (Erasmus University), Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), Alejandro Justiniano (Chicago FED) and Hashem Pesaran (University of Southern California and University of Cambridge) have confirmed their participation.

  • Click here for the call for papers.
  • Deadline: passed

Upcoming training schools 

'Term Structure Modeling and the Lower Bound Problem', Florence 7-9 September 2015

The 23nd EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'Term Structure Modeling and the Lower Bound Problem' taught by Dr Jens Christensen (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco). The course will cover the most recent literature on how to model the term structure of bond yields including challenges posed by the asymmetric behavior of yields near their lower bound.

  • Click here further details
  • Deadline: 10 July 2015

Past events 

 'Macroeconomics and Inaquality', Stockholm, 9-11 December 2014

The 22nd EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'Macroeconomics and Inequality' taught by professor Per Krusell (Stockholm University) and professor Anthony Smith(Yale University). The course will review the theoretical developments of heterogeneous agents models. The course will also cover the empirical literature on inequality in income and wealth.

  • Click here for the invitation.
  • Deadline:  passed 

'Inequality and Macroeconomics' Stockholm, 12-13 December 2014 

Individual households differ along multiple dimensions, e.g., wealth, indebtness, income, education or benefits.Firms also vary in terms of size, productivity or access to credit. Accounting for agents heterogenity can have important implications when studying the impact of economic shocks and effectivness of economic policy. This conference aims to to include both theoretical and empirical contibutions discussing these issues.
F. Guvenen (U. Minnesota), W. den Haan (LSE), A. McKay (Boston U.), A. Sahin (Fed NY), T. Smith (Yale U.) have confirmed their participation.
  • Click here for the call for papers
  • Deadline: passed

'Nonlinearities in Macroeconomics and Finance in Light of Crisis' Frankfurt, 15-16 December 2014 

The importance and usefulness of nonlinear models has been emphasised by recent turbulent times. These models are crucial in fields of research and research-based policy advice regarding the nexus between financial instabilities and the macroeconomy, the housing market, the effects of standard and non-standard monetary policies, the effects of fiscal policies and the role of financial variables as providers of information regarding agents' attitude with respect to risk and stress conditions in financial markets. The conference will cover a broad range of themes in macroeconomics and finance with nonlinearities are relevant.
Chris Sims (Princeton University) will be the keynote speaker. Monika Piazzesi, Frank Schorfheide, Martin Schneider and Philippe bacchetta have agreed to participate.
  • Click here for the call for papers.
  • Deadline passed

Discussion forum: 'International Banking and Liquidity Risk Transmission: Lessons from cross Countries', Frankfurt 29 September 2014
Activities of international banks have been at the core of discussions on the causes and effects of the international financial crisis. Yet we know little about the actual magnitudes and mechanisms for transmission of liquidity shocks through international banks, including the reasons for heterogeneity in transmission across banks. The International Banking Research Network (IBRN), establishes in 2012, brings together researchers from around the world with access to micro-level data on individual banks to analyse issues pertaining to global banks. 

Guest speakers wil include:

  • Professor Claudia M. Buch (Deputy President of the Deutsche Bundesbank) 
  • Professor Jean Imbs (Paris School of Economics and CEPR)
  • Dr Joe Peek (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) 
  • Dr Huw Pill (Goldman Sachs) 
  • Professor Helen Rey (London School of Economics and CEPR) 

Click here for more information.

 'Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Activity', Florence, 15-17 September 2014

The 21st EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'Finance and the Macroeconomy' taught by professor Simon Gilchrist (Boston University), The course will cover both the theoretical and empirical issues related to finance and the macroeconomy through the lenses of financial accelerator type models. The training school will take place at the European University Institute, Florence, from the 15th to the 17th of September 2014.
  • Click here for the invitation
  • Click here for the course material
  • The course will be followed by the conference "Macroeconomic Stability, Banking Supervision and Financial Regulation", September 18-19, click here for more information about the event.


'International Dimension of Optimal Monetary Policy', Cambridge (UK), 3-5 July 2014

The 20th EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'International Dimension of Optimal Monetary Policy' taught by professor Giancarlo Corsetti (University of Cambridge and CEPR). The course will focus on:
  • trade-offs between internal and external objectives reconsidered. Open-economy Phillips Curve, loss function and targeting rules. Monetary versus macro-prudential policies;
  • Open issues in the design of DSGE models for policy design and assessment:
    • Local currency price stability of imports;
    • Competitiveness;
    • Stabilization under fixed exchange rates: pitfalls in the so-called Walters' critique. Are multipliers larger under fixed exchange rate regime?
    • The trasmission of sovereign risk. 
  • Click here for more details

'Macroeconomic Stabilization and Economic Recovery after the Financial Crisis' Cambridge (UK), 9-10 May 2014

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis a number of policy issues have been brought to the centre stage of both policy debates and academic research. This conference aims to bring together some of the recent papers on economics recovery following boom-burst episodes, debt consolidation and sustainability and crisis, fiscal and monetary policy in a liquidity trap, the effects of newly designed policy institutions and institutional reform in the European Union. For more details see the call available below.
Partecipation has been confirmed by: Mark Aguiar (Princeton U.), Emmanuel Farhi (Harvard U. and CEPR), Ricardo Reis (Columbia U. and CEPR) and Jaume Ventura (CREI and CEPR).
  • Click here for the program

'Financial Econometrics, Macroeconometrics, and Predictive Modelling' Florence, 12-14 May 2014

The 21st EABCN training school will be a three days course on 'Financial Econometrics, Macroeconometrics and Predictive Modelling' taught by professor  Francis Diebold (University of Pennsylvania). The course will focus on recent developments in measurement, modelling and forecasting in macroeconomic contexts, financial economic contexts and the interface. The training school will take place at the European University Institute, Florence, from the 12th to the 14th May 2014.
  • Click here for the invitation

'Judgement and Combination in Forecasting and Policy Models', London, 20-21 March 2014

Judgement and expert knowledge is widely thought to be important in the successful practice of forecasting. For policymakers, forecasts also embody judgements about the state of the economy, the transmission of shocks and optimal policy responses which necessitate the use of structural models. DSGE models estimated by Bayesian methods have become popular, partly because the models have become popular, partly because the models have well defined structural interpretations and because the Bayesian framework allows judgements about model properties to be embodied in priors. There is, however, uncertainty about both model parameters and the correct model. 
This conference aims to bring together policymakers and academics interested in these issues.
  • Click here for the program and papers.

'Inflation Developments after the Great Recession', Eltville (Frankfurt), 6-7 December 2013

Inflation is at the moment under control in most of the developed world, in some areas there are deflation risks and in others active policies are in place to exit from deflation. However, rising fiscal deficits and public debt and unconventional monetary policy may have inflationary effects in the medium run, though the transmission mechanisms are still unclear and the uncertain enviroment makes it difficult to project future effects and developments in inflation expectations. This conference will focus on empirical and theoretical contributions providing an assessment of various issues related to inflation developments, offering new perspectives on structural analysis, forecasting and economic policy design and assessment. 

  • Click here for the program and papers

 'Volatility: Measurement, Modelling and Forecasting', Florence 13-15 November 2013

The 19th EABCN training school will be three days course on 'Volatility: Measurement, Modelling and Forecasting' taught by Professor Torben G. Andersen (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern). The training school will take place at the European University Institute, Florence, from the 13th to the 15th of November 2013.

  • Click here for the details

Discussion Forum: "Fiscal Fragmentation in the Euro Area: Sources, Implications and Policy Responses", Frankfurt, 23 September 2013

This EABCN Discussion Forum has considered a range of issues related to the state of current financial fragmentation in the Euro area. This has included the spillovers from financial fragmentation to good market fragmentation, the consequences of financial fragmentation for the resolution of the crisis and the rebalancing of the Euro area economy, the short run policy actions taken in response to financial fragmentation, as well as the longer-term institutional reforms such as banking union that need to be undertaken in order to avoid fragmentation in the future.
Guest Speakers included:
Click here for more information.

 Albert Marcet is interviewed on Vox

Albert Marcet explains why the predictions of potential Spanish sovereign default are misguided. He discusses debt and financial coordination in the eurozone and comments on his new role as scientific chair of the EABCN.

Click here to listen to the interview.

Andrew Scott interviews two leading economists: Tom Sargent and Jordi Gali

Click here to listen to the inteviews and to download the transcripts.

Real Time Data Base:  now publicly available on ECB SDW

We are happy to announce that now the database, available on this website since October 2005, is now publicly downloadable from the ECB Statistical Warehouse (SDW).

A detailed description of the database is contained in the CEPR/EABCN Working Paper "An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area" by Domenico Giannone, Jerome Henry, Magdalena Lalik and Michele Modugno. 

For more details click here.