Euro area

Economic sentiment shocks and fluctuations in economic activity in the Euro Area

JEL code(s)	C22 Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles E66 General Outlook and Conditions F42 International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Keywords	business cycle measurement, economic sentiment indicator, Euro area, survey data
Authors:	Bas Van Aarle
Date published:	April 8, 2011
Paper:	Download the paper [364.64 KB]

Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates

JEL code(s)	C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Keywords	Convergence, Euro area, inflation rate
Authors:	Claude Lopez
Date published:	March 9, 2011
Paper:	Download the paper [581.75 KB]

An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area

JEL code(s)	C01 Econometrics C82 Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords	database, Euro area, real-time and revisions
Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 50/2010
Authors:	Domenico Giannone Jérôme Henry Magdalena Lalik Michele Modugno
Date published:	January 21, 2010
Abstract:	This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We describe the database in details and study the properties of the euro area realtime data flow and data revisions, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We finally illustrate how such revisions can contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the NAIRU.
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Business Cycles in the Euro Area

JEL code(s)	E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Keywords	Euro area, european integration, European monetary union, International Business Cycle
Authors:	Domenico Giannone
Date published:	November 1, 2008
Abstract:	This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening.
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